Welcome to today's blog...
"Because of this incident didn't publish the regular blog."
I am immensely saddened to hear this unfortunate crash of the "Vande Bharat Mission Flight from Dubai to Kerala". My heartfelt condolences to the family's those who lost their loved one's #RIP. Vande Bharat Mission intends to evacuate the Indians who had been stranded aboard due to COVID-19.
Let us discuss what could have been a reason behind the crash? The analysis provided here was made according to the available information on the internet and other resources. This will be my opinion based on the information and data don't quote.
"No one can explain the actual reason, the Pilot and Co-Pilot were the one from whom we could. Unfortunately, they are no more with us."
Begining this blog with who commanded the Air India Express Flight from Dubai to Kerala were Pilot Ex-Wing Commander Deepak Vasant Sathe (Captain) and Co-Pilot Akhilesh Kumar.
Captain Deepak Vasant Sathe was from 58th course of the National Defence Academy, Pune. He was from "Juliet Squadron" and had been awarded the 58 NDA, President Gold Medal. Also won the Sword of Honour at the Air Force Academy in Hyderabad. He worked as a test pilot for the Air force and was accomplished fighter pilot. A test pilot is the one who evaluates the aircraft performance, conducts various tests, performs experiments on the aircraft, solve the related problems, research on aircraft and possess excellent knowledge on it. From this, one can definitely say that the cockpit was under the supervision of a great pilot with his co-pilot. The Pilot was exceptionally well qualified, so deciding to land was not inappropriate; thus, it is out of the question.
Although I saw in media and social networks, people are criticising the Pilot and co-pilot about there decision of landing. First of all, the person who is saying in this matter should be ashamed of what they are trending/speaking. How can you question such an experienced pilot work" We should be grateful for what they are/were doing during this Pandemic COVID-9 helping people to come back to there own country by risking their own life. Therefore, don't speak without knowing anything they would not have done it intentionally.
"It was a black day."
Don't talk rubbish and then spread it. I got extremely disturbed/saddened by seeing all this in the news and other media. "Be human think before you talk don't talk nonsense." We should salute their sacrifice in this current situation while saving passengers on board. It could have been more worst than this might have caught fire or crashed. How can we even think about questioning their profession?
In 2010, a flight from Dubai to Mangaluru Airport went off the runway and fell into a valley 100 meters resulting in the death of 158 people. Because the airport has tabletop runway means the runway is on the hill or the end of the runway is unbounded (i.e., it is next to the gorge, valley, cliff). Today's incident also resembles this case happened in 2010; however, the reason is still uncertain.
The flight Boeing 737-8HG Registration No. VT-AXH which was an evacuation flight on the Vande Bharat Mission from Dubai to Kerala. The actual landing time (local) was around 7:30 pm at Kozhikode airport. The flight was carrying 191 passengers, excluding the crew members. As per the reports, the weather condition was not good and there was a thunderstorm with heavy rain. According to ATC (Air traffic controller), the visibility was 2000 meter which is sufficient visibility range for a pilot to land safely. In figure 1, the red enclosed circle demonstrates there was high tailwind around 12 knots which is exceptionally high. The airport runway length is 9383 feet which is the optimum length as per DGCA; however, a runway length of around 7000 feet is a short runway. Therefore, the runway length was not a problem behind it; however, the airport has a tabletop runway. Landing in these extreme weather condition with a tabletop runway would have been a challenge for the captain. Due to the excursion of the runway, the aircraft fells into the ditch of 30-35 feet due to which the breakdown of the fuselage occurs and the cockpit directly hits on the ground and pilots died. Since it was raining the runway was wet and the braking action weakens because of low friction leading to Aquaplaning.
Aquaplaning is a phenomenon when the tires come in contact with water surface and losses the grip over the contact surface due to low friction and the tire skids as wheels are locked due to the applied brake pressure.
Figure 2, depicts the approach path of landing, firstly, the ATC gave clearance to the captain to land on "Runway 28" and the captain says Roger and approaches to land. In figure 2, the "overhead" is the point when the captain approach to landing that is the point after the aircraft starts to descend. As per regulations of the specific runway, the captain should maintain an altitude of 3100 feet and speed 140 knots; however, their approach was stable and was at 166 knots at 3275 altitude which is acceptable and normal landing can be performed, but the captain saw due to the high wind, turbulence and thunderstorms (cloudly weather) they cannot land on the specific runway. Hence, they go around by turning left (after the overhead point) and again try to land on the other "Runway 10". During the second approach, there was a tailwind which means there is a wind in the same direction of landing (wind is flowing from tail to nose) the condition was dangerous. The captain approached to land on "Runway 10" regulations says to maintain 140 knots at 2200 altitude for the specific runway; however, they were at 179 knots at 2250 feet (not a stable approach) + the tailwind + wet runway (Aquaplaning) + not 100% braking pressure. Due to all of these factors, the aircraft crossed the runway and fell into the ditch of around 30-35 feet by crossing the boundaries. As the aircraft proceeded to the ditch, it split into two pieces due to the impact on the aircraft.
Figure 3, illustrates the altitude and speed of an aircraft on the whole trip and it can be observed that the speed in the second approach was higher than the first approach. As stated above, the speed was higher than recommended this could be one of the reasons due to failure. Now the question arises why did the captain decide to land on "Runway 10" when there was a tailwind because there were turbulence and thunderstorms on the other runway with much turbulence.
Figure 4 shows the endpoint of "Runway 10" at Kozhikode airport.
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Figure 1: Aviation Meter Radar |
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Figure 2: Landing Scenario
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Figure 3: Speed vs Altitude.
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Figure 4: Landing Runway 10 |
This was my analysis based on the information and data I read. The investigation team can only give a clear picture of the crash.
Miserable crash I hope the families get enough strength towards the loss of their loved ones. #RIP Somber moment.
For more information, stay in touch with the website mentioned and/or authentic media reports.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_India_Express_Flight_1344
Thanks for reading it...